How often
How often football matches end in a draw
Football matches end in a draw roughly one time in four in Europe’s top leagues. The rate moves a little by league and season, and tight, low-scoring leagues see more stalemates than open ones.
Most draws are low scores. 1-1 leads by a distance, 0-0 comes next and 2-2 is much rarer. That is why a match with a low goals expectation and two evenly matched sides tops today’s list.
Even the likeliest draw of the day rarely reaches 35%, so every draw pick loses more often than it wins. In Nigeria the result is written as X on most slips.
The numbers
How each draw chance is worked out
Each draw chance comes from the match model, which blends the margin-free draw price with a goals model built from both league records. The bookmaker reading carries 65% of the weight.
Two sides with the same strength and fewer than 2.3 goals expected between them tend to rate near 30%. A big favourite at home pushes the draw chance down to 20% or lower.
Strong marks a draw chance of 32% or more and Fair 29% or more. Those cut-offs are low because the draw is the least likely of the three results in most matches. A 30% draw has a fair price of 3.33.
Tomorrow
Draw predictions for tomorrow
Draw predictions for tomorrow join the list as each match page is written, about a day and a half before kick-off. Late kick-offs in Europe arrive in the evening.
Draw prices drift less than win prices, but team news still moves them. A side resting players before a cup tie can turn an even match into a lopsided one overnight.
The rows are sorted by chance, so the top three are where the model sees the closest contests of the day.
Prices
Draw odds: why the price is long
Draw odds sit between about 3.00 and 4.00 for most matches, because the draw is the least likely result. A price of 3.30 implies 30.3%, so a draw rated 32% is priced slightly long.
Long prices mean long losing runs. At 30%, seven misses in a row will happen now and then, so a fixed small stake works better than raising the stake after each loss.
A ₦1,000 stake at 3.40 returns ₦3,400. Two draws from five bets at that price leave you ahead, which is the maths behind backing draws as singles. Sizing the stake to the long price keeps losing runs affordable.
Record
Draw results from the last 7 days
Draw results are settled on the 90-minute score. Strong and Fair picks count towards the rate below, and each settled pick stays on the list with its final score.
Draw predictions today join this record after the 90 minutes, and each row shows the final score beside the chance, so a 1-1 or a 0-0 is easy to spot.
A draw rate near 30% means about three hits in ten, and the profit comes from the price, not the strike rate. Check both before deciding whether the picks suit how you bet. A profitable month for draws can include a week without a single winner.
Draw FAQ
Which score is the most common draw?
1-1 is the most common draw in Europe's top leagues, followed by 0-0 and 2-2.
Does a draw after extra time count?
No. The draw market settles on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a cup tie level at full time is a draw even if one side wins in extra time.
Can draw picks go in an accumulator?
They can, but the chances multiply fast. Two draws at 30% each land together about 9% of the time, so most punters back draws as singles.
What is a score draw?
A score draw is any draw with goals, such as 1-1 or 2-2. A 0-0 is a goalless draw, and some bookmakers price the two separately.